On 27th October, the China International Peanut Conference 2021 was hosted by CCCFNA and co-organized by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in Pingdu, China. Domestic and foreign experts made deep analysis and forecast in the supply and demand of China and the international peanut market.

Ms. Li Xiue, Chief Commercial Officer of ETG China, shared an overview on Africa/China Peanut Trade, including global peanuts production, China peanuts import market, peanuts production and trade in Africa’s major producing regions and outlook of peanuts trade between China and Africa in the new season.

In her presentation, she mentioned that the global peanuts production in 2020 was 45~50 million mts, including 13 million mts from China, 7.3 million mts from India's autumn crop, 2.78 million mts from the United States and 5.87 million mts from Sudan, Senegal, Ethiopia, Nigeria and other major African producing areas. She also expected that there will be plenty supply of peanuts for crop 2021 although there is a slight reduction (3-5%) of China production, India is expected to have a 10% increase, the United States has a 6-8% increase, and major African producing areas also have around 10% increase.  

For the prospect of the peanuts trade between China and Africa in the new season, in her opinion, there are several factors to consider: 

1. The peanut supply of 2021 is sufficient, and the production has a large increase in India, the United States and Africa. Meanwhile China is in a bearish market, will such a market can arouse the enthusiasm of importers?

2. Global vegetable oil prices are at high levels. Can they push up the price of peanut oil? In fact, people in peanuts industry know that peanut oil is completely independent of the other vegetable oil. Through the past 8-10 years of price tracking, we found that the price correlation of peanut oil and other vegetable oil is very low, less than 65%. Especially after the outbreak of pandemic last year, the prices went in opposite directions.  

3. The impact of COVID-19 on travel, shipping and processing capacity. Based on peanut import volume last year, the impact appears to be low. Whether the commodity arrived on time or delayed, the import volume remained at a high level.

4. The impact of peanut export policies in African countries. Will Senegal continue the previous year's foreign currency control policy, export start time, origin purchase policy? Will Sudan government suddenly suspend peanut exports for a while? 

5. Logistics challenges. Last year we have seen containers shortage in both Senegal and Sudan. These also bring great uncertainty to next year's import.